Preview: Fed To Remain On Hold in July, In Spite of Trump’s Pressures, Given Upside Inflation Risks

by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze

In this paper we discuss:

• The state of the US economy, which remains resilient in spite of the various shocks brought about the Trump administration; 
• The expected decision by the Fed not to cut rates in July, while preparing the ground for a September cut; 
• That the economy has performed broadly in line with the June forecasts; 
• The expected market reaction, which is likely to be muted. 

Download PDF: Fed Preview July 2025