Preview: Fed to Leave Rates Unchanged in June. Can Warsh Convince Trump That “Hold is the New Cut?”

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June;
• How Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair could signal a shift toward greater “strategic ambiguity” in Fed communications;
• Why resilient growth and higher energy-driven inflation are pushing the Fed toward a more hawkish stance;
• How updated projections may point to higher inflation and a longer period of restrictive monetary policy;
• Whether Warsh can maintain a policy hold despite pressure from Trump for lower rates;

Download PDF: Fed Preview – June 2026