Preview: Fed Likely But Not Certain To Remain on Hold in July, While The Need for a Rate Hike by September Is High

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in July while leaving the door open to a September hike;
• How persistent inflation, higher energy prices, tariffs, and AI-driven investment are strengthening the case for further monetary tightening;
• Why Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach is increasing uncertainty over the near-term policy outlook;
• How markets are increasingly pricing a September rate hike despite recent signs of easing inflation and a softer labour market;
• How the Fed is balancing resilient economic growth against inflation risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Download PDF: Fed Preview – July 2026