Emerging Markets Fragility July 2018

MACRO PICTURE

Emerging Markets Outlook: Rising Risks, Fragility Ahead

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi and Francisco Quintana

24 July 2018

In this paper we discuss:

• The cyclical slowdown looming ahead for the global economy;
• The economic impact on emerging markets from slower economy, higher interest rates and stronger U.S. dollar;
• The market implications (for stocks, fixed income, currencies, commodities) of the increased vulnerability of emerging markets; and
• The alternative scenarios to the baseline discussed above.

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