In 2024 there will be elections held in several key countries or regions, each of which has the ability of change the fate of the world for the foreseeable future. Three of these will be held in developed countries and regions, namely, the US, the European Union, and the UK; three will be held in the developing world, in Russia, India and Taiwan. We will discuss these elections in two upcoming pieces of research.
Starting with the developed countries, the US presidential election in November 2024 is likely to be as contested, and possibly even more heated, than the 2020 election that led Joe Biden to become US president. In spite of 13.2 million jobs having been created during his presidency, and the US having led – so far rather successfully – the anti-Russia coalition in Ukraine, Biden’s popularity remains low (at 41%), and polls show that another run-off against Donald Trump would be as tight as it was last time. Needless to say, if Trump were to win the race to the White House, the entire geopolitical landscape at global level would change.
In June 2024, the European election will be held. Formally speaking, this is the election of the European Parliament, which is still much less powerful than the national parliaments of the EU member states. However, the result of the election will be key for the choice of the EU Commission, which is the executive body (together with the Council) of the EU. There is an ongoing attempt by the right-wing groups, such as the European Conservative and Reformists, to re-balance the political barycentre of the governing coalition, which is currently composed of the Socialists and Democrats, European People’s Party (EPP) and the liberals. Other even more extremist groups, such as Identity and Democracy of Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, will try to create a right-wing bloc with the EPP, which might be capable of substituting for the grand coalition between Socialists and EPP.
In the UK, elections may also take place in November. A victory of the Labour party is widely expected, but the real question is whether Labour will have a working majority in parliament or will instead be forced to form a minority government or enter into coalitions. Even after Brexit, the UK is crucial for European affairs, given its international alliances (including NATO) and its strenuous anti-Russian position in the war in Ukraine. A Labour victory may change some of these equilibria.
Moving on to the developing countries, in April and May 2024 there will be elections to decide the members of the 18th Lok Sabha, India’s lower house. As we have discussed in our recent report, a large coalition has been put together to defeat Narendra Modi, the “most popular leader in the world,” who has recently shown a more nationalistic and autocratic posture. But as in the case of Turkey, a large but heterogeneous coalition may not be enough to defeat the incumbent leader. We have often discussed India’s ability not to choose side between the US and China in Cold War 2. But if a change of leadership were to occur, the balance may move one way or the other
In January 2024, there will be presidential elections in Taiwan. As usual, the key issue will be the position of the next president vis-àvis China. But this year, there are reasons to believe the contest will be even more heated than usual. This could be the case not just because of the increasing disputes regarding Taiwan, but also because some analysts believe that China may take advantage of the electoral year in both the US and Taiwan to increase its destabilisations tactics against the island. Some even fear there is a potential window for an invasion (though this is a risk scenario, at this stage).
Finally, but no less importantly, in March 2024 there will be presidential elections in Russia. Prior to the war in Ukraine, these would be considered marginal events, with a predetermined outcome, the re-election of Putin. However, there are now rumours that Putin may not even be in a physical condition to actually run the next election, which if true would dramatically change the entire global geopolitical landscape, as much as would a victory by Trump in November 2024 would do.
