REVIEW: After a “Hawkish Hold,” the ECB Starts From “A Good Base”, If Policy Action Were Required

In this paper, we discuss:

• The ECB kept rates unchanged, adopting a cautious, data-dependent stance;
• The tone has turned more hawkish amid rising inflation risks from the energy shock;
• The Middle East conflict is pushing inflation higher while weakening growth;
• Markets have repriced the outlook, with increasing expectations of potential rate hikes;
• The policy outlook remains uncertain, with decisions dependent on incoming data and the duration of the shock.

Download PDF: ECB Review – March 2026