Preview: ECB To Stay on Hold Amidst War-Related Economic Uncertainty

In this paper, we discuss:

• The ECB is expected to remain on hold, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance;
• The Middle East conflict is creating an energy-driven inflation shock while weakening growth;
• Policymakers face a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and fragile economic activity;
• Market expectations have shifted, with increasing pricing of potential rate hikes later in the year;
• The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to both inflation and growth depending on energy price dynamics.

Download PDF – ECB Preview – March2026