Preview: ECB To Take A Pause in July, While Keeping The Door Open to Further Easing

by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze

In this paper we discuss:

• The state of the EU economy, which is proving more resilient than expected, given the macroeconomic context; 
• The pause we expect the ECB to take in July in its easing cycle. 
• How the economy has performed better than the forecasts made in June; and
• The muted market reaction we expect to this event. 

Download PDF: ECB Preview – July 2025