Preview: ECB To Keep Rates Unchanged in April, While Awaiting More Data on the War’s Economic Impact

In this paper, we discuss:

• The ECB is expected to remain on hold in April, maintaining a data-dependent;
• The Iran war is increasing inflation risks via energy prices while weakening growth dynamics;
• Rate cuts are being delayed, with potential tightening still possible later in the year;
• Policy uncertainty remains high, with the ECB keeping full optionality amid mixed signals;
• The growing trade-off between inflation control and supporting a slowing eurozone economy.

Download PDF: ECB Preview – April 2026