Preview: ECB To Hike Rate in September, To Insure Against Second Round Effects

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the ECB is expected to hike rates by 25bps in September;
• How resilient growth and rising inflation strengthen the case for an “insurance hike”;
• Why the energy shock and second-round inflation effects remain the key risks;
• Why further tightening beyond September is less certain;
• How higher bond yields and Middle East tensions complicate the ECB’s outlook.

Download PDF: ECB Preview – September 2026