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Home - News - Preview: ECB To Pause in October, On the Brink Of Restrictive Policy Stance

Monetary Affairs

Oct 27, 2026

Preview: ECB To Pause in October, On the Brink Of Restrictive Policy Stance

Nouriel Roubini

Brunello Rosa

Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

Why the ECB is expected to hold rates in October;
How rising energy prices are sustaining eurozone inflation;
Why higher sovereign bond yields are reducing the need for immediate tightening;
How France’s debt crisis is complicating ECB monetary policy;
Why a final hike in December could move policy into restrictive territory;

Download PDF: ECB Preview – October 2026