Preview: ECB To Take a Pause in its Rates Adjustment in July

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the ECB is expected to pause its rate adjustment cycle while maintaining a data-dependent policy stance.
• How persistent inflation and renewed energy price pressures are keeping the door open to further tightening.
• Why markets continue to expect a 25bp ECB rate hike in September despite softer recent inflation data.
• How slowing eurozone growth is complicating the ECB’s balance between supporting activity and restoring price stability.
• How geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices are reshaping the eurozone inflation outlook and monetary policy expectations.

Download PDF: ECB Preview – July 2026