At the end of August, the meeting of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Johannesburg decided upon the admission of six new member states into the club: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, the UAE and Egypt. This enlargement marks a diplomatic victory for China, which had urged the other BRICS countries to transform the club into a geopolitical rival to the G7 gathering, which is dominated by the US and Europe. In previous columns, we have discussed how the BRICS were morphing into an emeging markets G7; the enlargement of the group seems to confirm this trajectory.
The BRICS enlargement will create an even more heterogeneous group, with internally diverging strategic interests and geopolitical ambitions. All the same, it certainly strengthens China’s position as a broker of international affairs. In fact, it would have never been possible without a preliminary rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was sanctioned by the pact signed between the two countries in Beijing in April.
While it is perfectly legitimate for China to try to leverage the BRICS grouping to project more geopolitical influence in various areas of the global economy, doing so will also create further problems for global governance. As we discussed previously, international fora for the resolution of conflicts, or for the tackling of transnational issues such as climate change and pandemics, are becoming increasingly ineffective. Indeed with Cold War 2 between US and China gathering pace, these international fora are becoming increasingly balkanised; they are being divided into factions, each of them loyal to either the US or China.
The UN Security Council is clearly divided, with a fault-line separating the US, UK and France on the one hand and China and Russia on the other. The G20 is even more dramatically being divided between the allies of China and those of the US. When the G20 meeting was hosted by Indonesia in Bali in November 2022, it was almost a miracle that the various countries agreed on a joint communique. For the upcoming G20 meeting in India, they might not even be able to do so.
In fact, Chinese leader Xi Jinping confirmed that he will not attend the G20 meeting; instead he will send his right-hand man, premier Li Qiang. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will also not attend, because an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court is still hanging over his head. These absences will clearly reduce the influence of the gathering and its ability to address the numerous global issues currently on the table. It is also possible that other heads of states and government will decide to send their own number twos, knowing that Xi will not be there, and so further reducing the impact of the meeting.
In our view, Xi’s decision to stay home is a deliberate decision by China to boycott the G20 as a gathering for the resolution of international disputes, to the clear advantage of more limited groupings such as the G7 and the enlarged BRICS. This will reinforce the polarisation of global economy and the geopolitical order.
