After Jair: Can Flávio Carry the Bolsonaro Movement to Victory?

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why Brazil’s presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro has tightened;
• Why Flávio still faces structural weaknesses despite stronger polling;
• How the Supreme Court and Senate elections have become central to the political contest;
• Whether the Bolsonaro movement can maintain its support without Jair Bolsonaro as its candidate.

Download PDF: Brazil Politics – September 2026