Review: BoJ on Hold in October, But a Hike in December Remains on the Table

by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

• The state of the Japanese economy, where economic risks lean to the downside for the next year;
• The BoJ’s decision to remain on hold, and what it could do going forward;
• The BoJ’s slightly higher outlook for growth and inflation in 2025, alongside a cut to its growth forecast for 2026; and
• The muted market reaction.

Download PDF: BOJ Review October 2025