Review: BoJ Remains on Hold, But The Stagflationary Shock Leaves a Hiking Bias

In this paper, we discuss:

• The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but signalled a clear tightening bias;
• A growing stagflationary mix, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to activity;
• Upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward revisions to growth projections;
• The likelihood of gradual rate hikes in coming months, conditional on economic resilience.

Download PDF: BoJ Review – April 2026