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Monetary Affairs
Sep 15, 2026

Preview: BoJ To Increase Rates in September, But Further Tightening To Occur Only Slowly

Nouriel Roubini

Brunello Rosa

Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

  • Why the BoJ is expected to hike rates by 25bps to 1.25% in September;
  • How stronger growth, wages and persistent inflation support further tightening;
  • Why yen weakness alone is unlikely to trigger faster rate hikes;
  • How expansionary fiscal policy could complicate the BoJ’s tightening cycle;
  • Why further rate hikes are likely to proceed only gradually in 2027.

Download PDF: BOJ Preview – September 2026

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