BOE Review: A More Hawkish MPC Remains on Hold in July, But Inflation Persistence Suggests Possible Policy Tightening if Geopolitical Tensions Continue

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the BoE kept interest rates unchanged despite a more hawkish split within the MPC;
• How growing concerns over persistent inflation and Middle East-driven energy prices are increasing the likelihood of future policy tightening;
• How the BoE’s latest economic scenarios highlight the crucial role of geopolitical developments in shaping inflation and growth;
• Why energy prices and second-round inflation effects will remain the key drivers of UK monetary policy in the months ahead.

Download PDF: BOE Review – July 2026