We have written several times about the upcoming US elections in the last few months. First and foremost, it is by far the most important and consequential of the several elections that will take place in 2024, “the biggest election year in history.”
We have discussed how difficult it is to replace Biden as the leading candidate for the Democratic camp, in spite of the several calls coming from different directions asking him to step down given (a) old age, (b) health-related concerns, and (c) the fact that he is trailing in the polls. For the time being he will remain the candidate of that party, unless the DNC finds a solid argument to impose an alternative at the Democratic Convention that will take place in August in Chicago.
On the Republican front, after Super Tuesday, in which 10 out of 11 states have chosen Trump and Nikki Haley stepped down as a contender, the former president has become the de-facto candidate of the Republican party to run the presidential race, which will be officially sanctioned by the Republican Convention that will take place in July in Milwaukee.
So, it seems that the presidential race of 2024 will be a re-match of the 2020 electoral campaign. But is that really the case? For sure, unless the two leading candidates are substituted by others, for a variety of reasons, the two names are the same. But both candidates would act quite differently from how they have in the past, if re-elected. And both of them are likely to further radicalise their policy stance.
Biden, if re-elected, would feel less constrained and – for example – would likely act more decisively on Israel, to stop PM Netanyahu and his massacre in the Gaza strip. Trump would further accentuate his isolationist positions, on both economic matters (epitomised by his “America First” approach) and geo-strategic issues (de-funding NATO and asking the Europeans to step up). On the domestic front, Trump would “take no prisoners” and would likely conduct a total wipe-out of the much-hated “deep state,” in his “one day” of self-proclaimed “dictatorship.”
So, both candidates would radicalise their differences, which are very evident in economic matters and geopolitics. While both candidates want to preserve the US role as centre of the international system, Trump wants to promote an autarkic approach based on “buy American, hire American.” Conversely, Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act promotes subsidies for companies from other countries (in particular, from Europe) that are willing to invest in the US. It is a de-facto subsidisation of energy and manufacturing exports not dissimilar to what the US does with NATO on the defence front.
In geo-strategic terms, Trump pulled out of TPP, JCPOA and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, while Biden has indirectly engaged NATO in the war in Ukraine as a prominent objective. When people say that “under Trump there were no wars,” they forget the wars that have emerged as a result of Trump’s decisions. For example, pulling out of the JCPOA has meant dis-engagement with Iran, in favour of separate agreements between Israel and selected Arab countries under the Abraham Accords. But this has made the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, that the Biden administration was negotiating, subject to the whims of the Iranians. Unsurprisingly, with Iran out of the equation, the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, and the Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea, have taken place.
It is hard therefore to imagine a more consequential election than the US presidential race of 2024, which can hardly be described as a mere re-match between Biden and Trump.
