The Biden administration has made important, and unexpected, moves in the last few weeks, moves that could reshape global geopolitics for decades to come, putting the US on a much stronger footing in Cold War 2, its global competition with China for world supremacy.
Earlier in August, it emerged that a potential breakthrough occurred in Biden’s attempt to normalise the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The two countries do not have formal diplomatic relationship but, informally, they co-operate on key security issues, having a mutual enemy in common, Iran. If these diplomatic efforts are successful, the two countries would begin their own formal diplomatic relationships; Riyadh would open an embassy in Tel Aviv, for example. The hope is that other Muslim countries would then follow suit, and also that Israel and Saudi Arabia would step up their security cooperation with one another. In exchange, Riyadh would secure more US defence support and assistance for its own civil nuclear programme. Additionally, Saudi Arabia would also want Israel to make concessions on the Palestinians’ state.
If this diplomatic effort succeeds, it would be the strongest response by the US administration to China’s advances in the region, and in particular to its successful brokering of the pact between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed in Beijing in April. But there are still enormous obstacles to overcome before either side can declare victory. For example, Saudi Arabia’s military requests may prove difficult for the US to negotiate, as they would need approval from a sceptical Congress. Israel may be unwilling to make concessions to Palestinian aspirations.
Additionally, with US presidential elections looming, the three countries may prefer to wait for the results before concluding any agreement that may be overturned by a new president. However, if a pact is in fact struck between the three sides, it would have the effect of stabilising the region for decades to come.
Looking to another part of the world, the US administration has also managed to secure a deal, signed in Camp David, between Japan and South Korea, whose relationships have been tense for decades, following the Japanese occupation of Korea during the first half of the twentieth century. At a time when China is announcing further military drills in the Strait of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea realised that it was important to show an united front against China’s threats and economic coercion. The agreement foresees “annual summits between US, Korean and Japanese foreign and defence officials; establishes joint military exercises; and creates new lines of communication to collaborate on threats posed by North Korea and China”, according to press reports.
US President Biden is clearly trying to leave a lasting footprint in US foreign policy before the end of his first mandate, not knowing if he will still be in the White House after January 2024. He is also putting the US on a much stronger footing in Cold War 2, by strengthening its alliances in East Asia, as well as in the Middle East where China and Russia have made tremendous strides in the last few years.
