Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under President Richard Nixon, and advisor to other presidents, including John F. Kennedy, turned 100 last week. The press was full of articles recollecting his achievements as top US diplomat, in particular his ability to begin the so-called détente between US and China in the early 1970s, and his negotiations that led to a ceasefire during the war in Vietnam. For these and other results, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973. Kissinger was considered able to reach impossible compromises among belligerent parties.
Being still active in media, Kissinger has expressed his views on the war in Ukraine, and how it could end. Recently, he changed his mind regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership. Initially, he thought it would be read by Russia as a further provocation, and so opposed Ukraine’s membership. But now he believes that Volodymyr Zelensky is an “extraordinary leader,” who is wise in accepting China’s diplomatic efforts, and that NATO members should allow Ukraine to join the club sooner rather than later.
Clearly, in these highly confused times, another Kissinger able to negotiate a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine would be neeeded. We believe there is still a long way to go before this can ever happen. Ukrainian troops have just announced the beginning of their long-waited Spring counter-offensive, with the aim of winning back some of the territories currently occupied by the Russians. Ukrainian sources are saying that they expect some form of “massive incident”, a “provocation” by the Russians at the nuclear power station of Zaporizhzhia, currently controlled by the Russians, reportedly to justify their reaction.
Despite this, perhaps the first elements of a possible path to peace are starting to emerge. There are several pieces to this jigsaw puzzle. First, Russia has said that China – which has its special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui – would reportedly be in favour of Russia keeping the territories that it is currently controlling. Ukraine, and the West, do not consider this acceptable, although some of the allies would be open to leaving Crimea to Russia. Second, Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of the UK cyber-intelligence at CGHQ, said that President Xi cares that his ally Putin should not end this conflict with a humiliation, implying that some sort of compromise that allows him to save face would be necessary.
Third, the Vatican has opened its diplomatic channels, and Pope Francis has nominated Cardinal Zuppi as the Holy See’s envoy to the region, the same way that in 2003 Pope Wojtyla appointed Cardinal Etchegaray as his envoy to Bagdad, at the time of the war in Iraq. Moscow seems in favour of the Vatican’s mission, while Ukraine is much more sceptical. Fourth, Brazilian president Lula said that he is ready to negotiate with Russia, together with India, Indonesia and China, to find a peaceful compromise to end the war.
These are still very preliminary steps, but perhaps they could be the initial elements towards a possible, compromise solution.
