We have discussed on several occasions that we believe there is an ongoing Cold War between the US and China, which is being fought on the fields of trade, technology, and supply chains. For example, on the tech side, the Netherlands and Japan have recently joined the US in restricting chip exports to China. According to Harvard scholar Graham Allison, there may be a chance that this Cold War will escalate into a “hot war”, with an open military exchange between the US and China taking place. In our in-depth analysis of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, we also discussed how Taiwan may become the detonator of such a military exchange.
Today, the news emerged of a memo written by General Mike Minihan, head of US Air Mobility Command, in which the general said that he has a gut feeling that “the two military powers were likely to end up at war” by 2025, according to the FT. In fact, in 2024 there will be the US presidential election, which will distract the US administration and population. There will be also presidential elections in Taiwan. The uncertainty created by these two occurrences may favour a Chinese attempt to take over Taiwan.
The US had historically kept so-called “strategic ambiguity” as to whether they will intervene in defence of Taiwan, but recently Biden has been more vocal about the fact that the US will in fact intervene. This is supposed to deter China from taking that step. That is the reason why China is watching very closely the US position vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine. In the joint declaration of 4thFebruary 2022 between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin, the “Russian side reaffirm[ed] its support for the One-China principle, confirm[ed] that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and oppose[d] any forms of independence of Taiwan.”
So, how is the situation progressing in Ukraine? Last week, we discussed the hesitation by Germany in sending its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Eventually, the German Chancellor decided to send 14 tanks, and allow other European countries to do so. Also, the US approved another aid package for Ukraine, which includes the possibility of sending 31 M1 Abram tanks. The US and Germany are the two largest providers of weapons to Ukraine, followed by the UK. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin said it is ready to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, if necessary.
On the back of this news, the FT wondered if Ukraine was getting ready to resist the likely assault by the Russian troops that is expected to take place in the spring. Or rather, whether Ukraine is ready to launch its own offensive. Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto said that, if Russian tanks come back to Kyiv, World War 3 would ensue. That cannot be taken for granted. But clearly a direct military exchange between US and China over Taiwan would likely lead to what will undoubtedly be labelled by future historians as the beginning of World War 3.
Is this scenario avoidable? In theory, yes, even if it seems to be that we are sleepwalking into it. On the positive side, after Pelosi’s provocatory trip to Taiwan, there is the scheduled trip of US secretary of state Antony Blinken to China in a week’s time; Blinken will be the first cabinet secretary from President Joe Biden’s administration to visit China.
Additionally, President Xi will visit the US in November for the APEC meeting, which will be held in San Francisco. One hopes that these will be occasions for the two super-powers to clarify their respective positions and re-start a constructive dialogue, instead of being occasions on which ultimatums are launched.
