On February 24th, 2023, the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took place. As we discussed in various columns on this theme, this date also marks the end of the post-WW2 equilibria, the official end of this phase of the globalisation process, and an acceleration to the polarisation of the world between the spheres of influence of the US and China, as part of the broader Cold War 2 between the world’s super-powers.
On February 4th, 2022, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping met in Beijing and issued a joint declaration that called for the beginning of a “limitless cooperation” between the two countries. That declaration, intended to be the first step toward the establishment of a new, multipolar world order, represented the de-facto green light given by China to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Subsequently, press reports were released in which Xi expressed his irritation for not being fully informed by Putin about his intentions prior to the invasion. (Indeed, even Russia’s own Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was informed about Putin’s decision only after the invasion had started). But the reality is that the recent European tour by China’s plenipotentiary Wang Yi concluded in Moscow, with a meeting with Putin, and – according to press reports – Xi himself is expected to visit Putin soon.
Whatever the recollection of events may be, the fact remains that the relationships between Russia and China remain “rock solid”, and now the world has polarised between the US and its allies, primarily in Europe (which has given up any dream of “strategic autonomy”) on the one hand, and China and its allies on the other. Only a bunch of countries can afford not to choose between these two sides and remain non-aligned; primarily, India. But India has joined China in not approving the UN resolution that condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week (141 voted in favour, 32 countries abstained – including India and China – and 7 voted against, i.e. Belarus, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea and Mali.)
In our view, many countries in Africa and Latin America will likely become battlefields of proxy wars between the US and China, as happened during the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union (and in fact, many of those same countries abstained in the UN resolution asking Russia to leave Ukraine). In our opinion, the war in Ukraine is already the first of these proxy wars between the US and China, fought by Ukraine and Russia, notwithstanding the ongoing rivalry between these two countries, which of course dates back a long time before Cold War 2 clearly emerged.
And precisely because this is already a proxy war between US and China, we believe that China’s 12-point peace plan (“position paper”) to achieve a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis is destined to fail. The US will never accept that its main contender will become the peacemaker in a conflict in which the US is so largely invested.
Considering all this, it is hard to be optimistic about the duration and intensity of this war. What could be considered a “natural equilibrium” for Putin (a result after which he could claim full victory), i.e. the occupation – besides Crimea – of the four “annexed provinces” such as Luhansk and Donetsk, plus Odessa’s region up to Transnistria in Moldova, is totally unacceptable for the international community, and certainly to Ukraine. It would be hard enough to convince Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelensky to give up Crimea as part of a broader peace plan, and for Putin merely stabilising the position of Crimea alone after such a costly war would be considered a severe defeat.
This means that a diplomatic solution to this conflict is not in sight; but a victory of either of the two sides on the ground is also very unlikely, as US generals have admitted. The conflict will therefore continue, along with its dire humanitarian, social, economic and financial consequences. And with the risk of a nuclear escalation having in fact increased, rather than decreased, in recent weeks, as testified by Russia’s decision to suspend the application of the NEW START treaty on nuclear non-proliferation). The international community will need to continue working hard to find any solution that avoids such a catastrophic eventuality.
