The Abu Dhabi Defection: Inside the UAE’s Historic Exit from OPEC

In this paper, we discuss:

• The UAE’s historic exit from OPEC and the weakening of coordinated oil governance within the cartel;
• Abu Dhabi’s push for greater production flexibility and freedom from OPEC quota constraints;
• Growing geopolitical divergence between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over oil policy, Iran, and regional strategy;
• The implications for global oil markets, including higher volatility and a more fragmented energy order;
• The UAE’s broader strategy to expand geopolitical autonomy, strengthen bilateral energy ties, and bypass Hormuz-related vulnerabilities.

Download PDF: Abu Dhabi Defection – May 2026