In this paper, we discuss:
• Why the ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bps to contain inflation risks and anchor inflation expectations;
• How the Iran conflict and higher energy prices are pushing inflation forecasts higher while weakening the growth outlook;
• Why policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent approach while keeping the door open to further rate hikes;
• How the Eurozone is facing a challenging mix of rising inflation, slowing growth, and increasing recession risks.
Download PDF: ECB Preview – June 2026
